best strategy for betting on horses

Best Strategy for Betting on Horses

To make a profit off horse racing you need a solid betting system. ... Horse Racing Betting Systems. These are some of the simplest horse racing systems gamblers can use to make the most of their stake. The Statistical Lay. Using this betting system is relatively easy. First, find a race with at least 10 runners, identify the three favourites ...

Identifying False Favorites

In horse racing and financial markets, you will often come across something called the favorite-longshot bias. Putting it simply bettors overvalue the longshots and undervalue favorites or in other words, favorites are under bet whilst longshots are overbet.

Plenty of empirical studies have shown this to be correct since the term first came into use in the late 1940s. If you want to read a good academic article on the favorite-longshot bias, then I highly recommend⁚ Why is There A Favourite-Longshot Bias in British Racetrack Betting Markets by Leighton Vaughan Williams and David Paton, for the Economic Journal (Jan 1997). Now its over 27-years-old but its relevance remains and its an excellent nine-page introduction to the phenomenon.

To see if the favourite-longshot bias was still happening I took a look at the stats for the 2021 Flat season٫ as I thought the picture painted of winning longshots isnt a good one.

I took runners going off at 20/1 bigger as outsiders. Such qualifiers produced the following set of results⁚

244 winners from 14718 runners and 6,071 to 1 level stakes A 1.64 strike rate with 8 placing and the Return on Investment was 41

I further looked at how runners sent off at odds between 4/1 9/1 fared. They produced the following figures⁚

1644 winners 13654 runners 12 Strike Rate and 2369 to 1 level stakes

The loss on such runners was still high at -16.38 ROI

Meanwhile looking at the stats for favourites (clear, co joint) for the 2021 flat season.

1686 winners from 5377 for a 31 Strike Rate and 422

Granted you would still have lost backing all favourites during the season just gone but the loss would be a more manageable -7.85.

So, the proportion of races won by the favourite is running at a healthy 33 .

Taking this a bit further. Odds-on favourites won around 58 of their races losing 6.73 .

Seeing those results, looking on with disdain at favourite backers doesnt really make sense.

The key, of course, if you want to back favourites for a living or for profit is to find the right favourites to back. People who back favourites tend to assume that each favourite has the best chance in the race.

As the above figures show just one third of favourites win their races which still means two-thirds of favourites dont so they must be False Favourites .

Most professional punters will tell you that about 40 of favourites are false and I havent seen anything that disputes that figure. So٫ 40 of favourites are going off at shorter odds than they should.

Analyzing Horse Racing Systems

Horse races are open to opportunities to make a steady profit among smart bettors, which leads to the formulation of betting systems for horse racing.These systems came from the ideas that improve a bettors monthly yields by covering various bases. Below is a detailed discussion on horse racing betting systems and a list of ones you can use on the track.

2 ⏤ Betting Scientist Horse Racing System. Boasting of an insanely high 89.52 win strike rate and a place strike of 96.35 since its debut way back in 1992, the Betting Scientists horse betting system is one of the very best. Taking a different approach to the usual betting systems you come across, the Betting Scientist chooses to focus ...

But there are several horse racing systems ⏤ whether based on math, algorithms, bankrolls or other patterns ー that can yield some decent results over time. At Horse Racing Nation, we have reviewed several of these, and we are prepared to share the very best horse racing betting systems on the market with you. Coming Soon! Disable.

Horse racing systems identify bets based upon a pre-determined set of rules. These rules can involve trainers trends, last time out winners, age of the horses, etc. Systems can be developed through luck, guesswork or investigation of a perceived profitable angle. They can also vary greatly in complexity, with some systems contingent on ...

Heres our list of our top six simple horse racing systems that we have tested out and proved their ability to generate a profit. The list runs from six to one, with the best saved for last. Please let us know in the comments below if there are any you think weve left off! 6. Using the Racing Post Naps Table.

In this article, you will discover six horse racing betting strategies that work. If you have been trying to make money online by being a sports trader or professional gambler then this article is for you. Horse race betting and trading is an extremely popular way to earn an extra income online, but the problem is finding a betting system that returns a profit.

How to Win at Horse Racing System. Apparently, there are several options you can try in a wide range of markets. Some, like arbitrage, matched betting, and scalping, can work for a short period. The reason is that bookmakers will limit or even close your account if they suspect you of using horse racing betting systems to guarantee a profit.

Evaluating Profitability and Value

Profit and value are two crucial concepts in horse racing systems. Profitability is the ultimate goal of any betting strategy, and finding value is the key to achieving it. ... Horse racing betting can be a risky business, and bettors need to understand and manage the risks involved. One of the biggest risks in horse racing betting is losing ...

When assessing the profitability of a betting system, long-term results are a key factor, and Little Acorns stands out with an exceptional track record of profitability.. Since its inception in 2009٫ this system has generated over 1000 points in profit.Even with conservative 10 stakes٫ following the system would have yielded over 10٫000 in winnings.

For example⁚ If a punter puts on 1000 on a 1/2 favourite٫ if it wins٫ hes pocketed a cool 500 profit. Another punter puts 10 on the same horse٫ he gets a return of 5. To the former punter٫ its a good bet to the latter the small profit doesnt seem worth the risk.

But of course, it remains a value bet.

Betting is a long-term game with the aim of winning money over the long-term. I have a few micro-systems that involve backing favourites. The profits are small but over 12 months ROI is still better than I would get from any bank savings account.

The service has a penchant for picking high-priced winners, with winners at prices of 100/1, 66/1 and 50/1 having been achieved. 5. Profit Maximiser. Although covering more than just horse racing, Profit Maximiser has been a favourite of ours for the past couple of years and its easy to see why. There are a number of risk-free introductory ...

Join Free Now. Betting Gods is one of the best known, most reputable and most profitable betting advisory services out there. Its not as horse racing system as such, its a tipster platform. That means they give you access to a number of tipsters all in one place, and you choose which ones you want to subscribe to.

Laying a Horse⁚ If you lay a horse at odds of 5.0 for 10, you stand to gain 10 if the horse loses. However, if the horse wins, youll owe 40 (5.0 odds mean you pay out 50, but you already have the 10 stake). The potential payout versus liability is a unique facet of laying, making the staking strategy all the more crucial.

Managing Risks in Horse Betting

When youre betting for profit a high strike rate is very helpful in maintaining confidence and managing your bank.

In this article John Burke looks at strategies and a selection process for backing horse racing favourites for profit. For regular readers of these articles, you will know that I enjoy looking at horse racing betting systems. However, I havent until now looked at how backing favourites can make your betting more profitable.

Another popular type of betting system is the trend betting system. This system involves identifying trends in a horses past performance and betting on horses that fit those trends. For example, if a horse has consistently performed well on a specific track surface, you may bet on that horse to win on that surface.

best strategy for betting on horses